Who’s to be blame?

David Jones takes an alternative look at the current economic crisis and asks who is to blame for what is happening...

It’s human nature to look for someone to blame when something goes wrong. Amazing thing is; it’s always someone else’s fault. Whatever happened to the honest ‘fair cop guv’nor’ response to getting caught with your fingers in the till?

“It wasn’t me; it wasn’t my fault,” is the automatic reaction to everything bad that happens nowadays. Husbands are driven to infidelity by their wives frigidity. It’s not their fault they’re unfaithful; they can’t help themselves. Wives take lovers because their husband is uncaring, or they’re getting a bit over the hill and want to feel young again; but it’s not their fault, they’ve got an excuse. Vandals commit mindless crimes because society has let them down; people do reckless, even horrible things, because they’re under pressure. It’s not their fault. They can’t help themselves; they’re victims.

“Who could blame them? Wouldn’t you do the same thing if you were in their shoes?” is the sympathetic response we so often get from liberal minded neighbours, friends, work-colleagues and so on.

The current economic crisis that threatens to destroy society as we know it, is no different. Half a million people in Ireland may be on the dole queues by Christmas, but it no one’s fault. Certainly no Government Minister is to blame. It’s a worldwide problem; it started in America. The Irish Government can’t control the value of the Euro against Sterling; it’s not our Government’s fault Eastern European labour costs are less than ours.

The Government’s blameless. They’ve only been in power for the last 12 years, haven’t they? They gave us the Celtic Tiger, didn’t they? That was their achievement, wasn’t it? They took all the credit for it, didn’t they? But the Celtic collapse? Sure that’s nothing to do with them, is it?
It’s the Banks; they’re to blame. They lent too much money to property developers. They gave out irresponsible mortgages to first time buyers and pushed up house prices. They got greedy and paid themselves massive bonuses. It’s their fault; they didn’t know what they were doing.
But I thought we had a Government appointed Regulator? Didn’t the Government, through the local authorities, organise zoning that inflated building land prices? Didn’t the Government establish tax incentives to encourage property developers? And didn’t the Government profit enormously from stamp duty on over-priced houses?

No, no, I remember now; it’s the Golden Circle. They’re to blame. How could a Chinese restaurant cause all these problems? No silly, the Golden Circle isn’t a Chinese Restaurant; it’s a group of fat-cat bankers and property developers that hang around the Fianna Fail tent at the Galway races. Nothing to with the Government you know.

Maybe I’ve got it all wrong. Maybe it was the Banks’ fault after all. Sure didn’t they seduce ordinary, decent folk with bucket loads of money to spend on furniture, flat-screen TV’s, 4X4’s, designer handbags, extensions, attic conversions, conservatories, holidays in the Costas, debs dances, stretch limos, fake tans and so on. The poor innocent consumer surely wasn’t to blame. They didn’t know what they were doing. They weren’t used to having money to spend; their parents probably didn’t even have a bank account when they were young.

How could Mr and Mrs Average and their kids be expected to know they were acting irresponsibly spending all that money they didn’t really have, on things they didn’t really need? Even worse, how could they be expected to realise, all that easy money they naively borrowed would have to be paid back, even if things turned bad? Sure they couldn’t know that; they were only pawns in someone else’s game.

Blaming the Government and keeping them on their toes is the Opposition’s job. The warnings from Fine Gael and Labour that we should halt the Celtic Tiger were deafening, weren’t they? Can anyone remember one Opposition spokesman, or anyone else in authority for that matter, whose policy was that we really shouldn’t be having it so good?

Hang on a sec; maybe we are all getting paid a bit too much? Maybe that’s why prices in Ireland are so much dearer than everywhere else in Europe? Maybe it’s our high wage rates that are making our manufacturing uncompetitive? Maybe we’ve too many people employed in non-productive jobs? I’ve no wish to pick on the public sector; but what exactly do the 350,000 people working there all do?

But those are unfair questions. The Government looks after things like public sector recruitment and minimum wage rates. They’re to blame for our sky high costs. Sure you could hardly expect ordinary people to take a drop in wages or work a bit harder for less pay to make us more competitive and save our jobs, could you?

So it really is the Government’s fault after all. Thank god for that. For a moment I thought it might just be our fault; that we might have to share some part of the blame. Sure didn’t we vote the Government into office? Well some of us did. 857,000 of us gave a first preference vote to Fianna Fail. That’s it; they’re the ones to blame; all 857,000 0f them.

Then again, maybe it’s the Greens? They’re the Coalition partners that are keeping the two Brian’s in power. It’s their fault.

But what of those of us who didn’t vote? What responsibility does the headless chicken that was so busy chasing the Celtic Tiger’s tail, that he couldn’t find the time to vote, have for the mess we’re all in today? What about the lazy good for nothing that couldn’t be bothered to turn out in the General Election; what role did he play in creating this disaster that befalls us all?
Surely the absentees can’t be blamed, can they? Doesn’t not getting involved absolve you from all responsibility?

Like hell it does. We live in a democracy. People fought and died so we could have a say in what’s going on. The freedom to vote is as much a responsibility as it is a right. Sitting on the fence doesn’t excuse you from what’s going on all around you? You’re as culpable as if you were doing it yourself.

If we’re really honest; isn’t it time we stopped blaming the Government, stopped blaming the bankers and stopped blaming the property developers? While we’re at it, maybe we should stop blaming everyone else but ourselves? Perhaps it’s time all of us started taking some responsibility for what’s going on? Isn’t it about time we all stood up to be counted? Hiding out in the silent majority won’t improve things very much, will it?

So let each and everyone of us accept our share of responsibility for what’s going on, and let’s all play our part in helping to sort it out.

We’ve a new President in the United States. He’s been likened to John F Kennedy in that he has an honest desire to change things. Well JFK’s words might never have been more appropriate than they are today; “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what can you do for your country?”

It’s not someone else’s problem anymore; it’s yours. It’s your country they’re messing up, not someone else’s!

Copyright © David Jones, 2009

The Recession and the provision of health and welfare services...

We are living through unprecedented times. The economy is in crisis. A thousand people daily are losing their jobs; up to a half million Irish workers may be on the dole by Christmas. The Government is borrowing huge sums of money just to balance the books. As a country we are living above our means.

Following the April budget, we are going to see both an increase in taxation and savage cuts in public spending. At times like this we have to protect the vulnerable in our society. The Government promises to do that, but what faith do we have that they actually will?

It strikes me that we live in a society where so many things are upside down. We spend billions on the Health Service and Education, far more money than we have ever spent before; yet few people would honestly say things are better than they were. Wastage and unproductive spending are massive problems in the public sector. Ask any nurse, ambulance driver or teacher about the layers of bureaucracy that clog up the service they try to provide. Take a look at the salaries paid to front line workers in health care; compare them to management and administrative salaries, and wonder at the imbalances.

The problem we all face as cuts in public spending bite, is that they will affect the provision of basic services. No matter what the Government tells us, the balance between the providers of services and the administrators will continue to be top heavy. Carers, special-needs assistants, ambulance drivers, nurses, home help; these are the services that must be protected. Yet they, not the office personnel who administer them, will be under the greatest threat as spending cuts take effect. A quick look at the newspapers this week reveals HSE plans to cut 600 acute beds, and recruit three new directors at salaries of €194,000 each. Something seems amiss.

The gap between rich and poor in our society is getting bigger. We must protect the worse off; yet how many people are putting off going to the doctor or the dentist because they can’t afford the fee?

I picked up a hitchhiker yesterday, he told me he’d just come from the dentist. Poor chap had just had two teeth pulled. Assuming the story he told me is true, and I’ve no reason to suppose otherwise, the dentist wanted €3,000 to crown the teeth; but since the patient was on a medical card, all he could do was pull them for free.

One of the best contributors to the health and wealth of our nation is education. Could this valuable resource be better used? Of course it could. Wouldn’t it make sense to include more emphasis on things like good mental and physical health? Are we not missing a major opportunity to improve the health of our nation by teaching our children how to better look after themselves?

Copyright © David Jones, 2009

Cometh the hour, cometh the man...

History is full of great men arriving at times of crisis; Churchill, de Valera, Roosevelt, Ghandi, Mandela. Statesmen who are immortalised by the leadership they brought at watershed moments in their nation’s history.

Ireland stands today, at such a watershed moment. Our economy is on the brink of collapse; civil unrest could become a real possibility if things don’t improve. Every passing day seems to bring worse and worse news. We seem to be stumbling from one crisis to the next; our leaders openly acknowledge they don’t really know the extent of our problems.

We’re a small country, 4 million people or thereabouts. By the end of the year up to half a million of us could be without work. That’s unprecedented in modern times. The Government is borrowing billions of Euros; not to invest in rebuilding the country, but simply to balance the books. That we are living way above our means is indisputable.

A ‘budget’ is due next week. It is expected to include savage cuts in Government spending and a significant increase in taxation.

What happens if the ‘budget’ doesn’t work? What if things don’t improve? Supposing things get worse? What then?

We have to be realistic; things are going to be tough. We’re in for a rough time; maybe a very rough time. There will be setbacks, changes in direction, moments of crisis that will really test the mettle of the Government and the nation.

At times like this, we need leadership. A leader is someone who can inspire us, who can pull us through the hard times; someone who knows where they are going, who has a goal, an objective. A leader is also someone we can believe in, someone we trust and support; someone we will follow, no matter what.

Therein lies our problem; we don’t have that leader. We have a Government and a Taoiseach that are hopelessly unpopular. Public confidence in our leaders is at an all time low. Whether the two Brians and the rest of the cabinet have the capability to solve our problems, or not, is irrelevant. What matters is they don’t have our confidence.

Whether it is a general leading his troops into battle, a captain leading his team on the pitch, or a Prime Minister leading his country at a time of crisis; to succeed in any campaign, the leader must command both authority and respect. The troops, the players, the country must have faith and confidence in their leader. If they don’t then he has to go. It’s as simple as that.

We have a Taoiseach who got there by default. He has no mandate to lead the country in the way he would have if he led his party to victory in a general election. We have a Government we have no faith in.

At moments of crisis thoughout history, populations have demonstrated a willingness to accept significant sacrifice for the common cause. What we need now is a ‘crisis government’, one that can lead us out of the storm. To succeed, such a government must have public opinion on its side. If it is unable to inspire public confidence, the crisis will become a disaster.

It is ironic to hear the clamour for the boards of the banks to resign. They created the banking crisis, so the argument goes, how can they be trusted to solve it. So too the Government. Fianna Fail has been in government for 12 years. Brian Cowan has been a minister for most of that time. He was Finance Minister before he became Taoiseach.

President Obama was elected on a mandate of change. It is time now for change in Ireland. We urgently need a leader we can believe in. We need a Churchill; we need a new De Valera.

Step aside Mr Cowan; it’s time for a new man and a new Government to lead Ireland now.

Copyright © David Jones 2009

Adjust or go Bust!

David Jones wonders if the reflationary policies being pursued by the Fed and the Central Banks will work...

I’ve lost count of how much money the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the other central banks are pumping into the world wide economy to stimulate growth. The amount is so large I doubt there’d be enough room on one line of text for all the noughts involved. How much is a trillion anyway?

I’m no economist. I accept I have no qualification to question the actions of important central bankers; I can’t help wondering though, have any of the eminent treasury experts who are making these decisions stopped to think about the consequences of what they’re doing?

Presumably all this money that’s being pumped into Western economies is being borrowed from somewhere. Anyone stopped to question how we’re going to pay it all back? As I understand it manufacturing in the West has pretty much disappeared. Obvious question is; if we don’t make anything anymore, what are we going to sell? And if we’ve nothing to sell, how are we going to generate money to pay back those massive loans? Hopefully I’ve missed something obvious; but if I haven’t, what’s the fall back plan?

It’s prudent, before big decisions are put into practice, to ask why? Why are we doing this? What’s the point; what are we trying to achieve? It’s also appropriate to take at least a cursory look at the risk involved; or to put it another way around, is the objective attainable?

Therein lies the problem; for precedent would suggest the plan is flawed. Seemingly the Japanese tried it a few years ago, and it failed; but we’re all conveniently forgetting that. No-one seems concerned about this Japanese accident of history. Maybe they should be; for according to Karl Marx, history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as a farce.

But let’s not be unduly pessimistic; 40,000 Frenchmen can’t be wrong. All the experts seem to be agreed that re-flating the economies of the world is the only way out of the current crisis. Surely they must know what they’re doing, mustn’t they? Hang on a sec, aren’t they the same guys that told us house prices were ok, or at worst were set for a soft landing. Some soft landing eh?

Based on their track record shouldn’t we ask, do they know what they’re doing?

Their approach to the current crisis seems to be trying to turn the clock back; to get the economy back to where it was before the crash. The thinking seems to be if we can get back to where we started from, then everything will be ok again; but will it?

By releasing all these trillions into the world economy the central bankers hope to rebuild economic activity and get us all back to work again. Sounds great doesn’t it, but hang on a sec; shouldn’t we at least spend some time trying to find out what went wrong last time around? If not, are we not in danger of re-building another fiasco? Are we not just reconstructing another house of cards? Since it all failed so spectacularly last time, what makes the central bankers and economists think it won’t just fall apart again?

Ordinary people in the street knew the boom of the last ten years couldn’t possibly last. Every single one of us knew it was only a matter of time. And when the collapse came, were we surprised? Not at all; sure we all knew it couldn’t last. So why are our Governments trying so hard to get us back to where we were?

Wouldn’t it be better if we tried to adjust to the new reality, rather than pretend it will somehow go away? Shouldn’t we make the necessary adjustments, cut our cloth accordingly? Wouldn’t it be prudent now to accept, that it is change, not more of the same, that’s needed?

But change needs leadership. It means making harsh decisions. It means people’s living standards are going to have to drop. It means all of us accepting less than we’ve been used to. It means sacrifice; who’s going to have the guts to tell us that?

Bad news, and that’s what the truth often is, doesn’t make for good electioneering does it? Vote for me and see your standard of living decline; far better to promise the sun, the moon and the stars; then let some other fella try to sort out the resultant mess in the future.

But it’s change we need; and we need it now if we’re going to stave off future disaster. But politicians don’t like looking too far ahead; they prefer dealing with yesterday. They prefer blaming each other for what’s gone wrong, rather than trying to sort it out. Leading from behind is so much easier than leading from the front. I told you so is a very low risk strategy; sure nothing can wrong if you don’t do anything.

For change to work it has to be equitable, fair, honest, open and just. It necessitates compromise. It needs all of us abandoning our selfish attitudes.

Rather than cling to some ill thought out hope that we can get back what we’ve lost; wouldn’t we better off to acknowledge that things will never be the same again? Wouldn’t we be better off adjusting to the inevitable while we can; and before we make it infinitely worse by saddling ourselves with massive debts that future generations may never be able to pay back?

Our leaders are pursuing a high risk strategy. It’s also a very short-sighted one. Politicians have a bad habit of not looking very far ahead. Rather than admit we’re living above our means; they’re adding to the problem by borrowing what we can’t repay. Instead of accepting that the house of cards is falling down, they’re trying to fix it with a very, very expensive coat of paint. They’re shoring up the sham by pawning the future. It’s not good enough. We should demand better from them.

Copyright © David Jones 2009